Thursday, May 14, 2009

Reasons For the Financial Crisis part 1

Seems to me that people talk a lot about things but they rarely investigate reasons, causes, and solutions. For example, bailing out the banks neither addresses the reason for the crisis nor is it a solution to the original causes that created the crisis, but recently it's all people talk about. Thus time is wasted on the topic and it comes to be perceived, at least by some, as a 'solution'. It's far more acceptable to talk about events and then hint at some usually one line liberal sounding solution than it is to engage in an actual substantive analysis. In fact, I would argue that in recent times it has become somewhat unacceptable to even talk about certain issues, but maybe that's another article. In this article I would like to investigate some of the reasons for the financial crisis. Without getting political (yet), one can formulate a 'by definition' cause:

We borrow more than we can responsibly pay back.

This is a rather obvious cause of the financial crisis we are in. We do it both individually and as a nation. Our government sets a bad example by spending more each year than it receives. Our money then flows overseas to foreign nations in the form of interest on loans. US consumers borrow more than they can pay back, and banks let them do it.

This is simple enough and hard to disagree with. Now there are probably several reasons why we borrow more than we can responsibly pay back, but let's just consider one good one.

We produce less than we consume.

This is rather strait forward. We don't make things anymore. It has been said that America is a paper economy. Some people seem to be able to ignore basic laws of physics. You can't go along producing nothing and consuming everything for long until things start to get out of whack. But that's exactly what America has been doing. We have been running a trade deficit for years and it only seems to get worse not better. As a result nations like China have all our money. We send it to them in the form of the trade deficit. Producing less than we consume explains why we borrow more than we can responsibly pay back. Now why do we produce less than we consume?

It's not profitable to hire people to manufacture things.

Again that's sort of by definition true and I have so far avoided getting political. We don't manufacture things in America because it's not profitable to do so. I think there are many ingenious Americans that could probably invent some really good manufacturing processes. In fact they did, but unfortunately the processes were exported overseas and other countries get to enjoy the business advantages of using the technologies. Anyway since it's not profitable to hire people to manufacture things we produce less than we consume. So why is it not profitable to hire people to make things in America?

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